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Jefferies dug into the impact of Macy’s (M) closing 150 underperforming stores to find that TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX) may be the retailer that is best positioned to scoop up extra market share.
Analyst Corey Tarlowe and his team relied on real estate analysis that explored the proximity of Macy’s (M) ~500 locations to Marshalls and T.J. Maxx’s ~2,500 locations in the U.S. The firm pointed to significant real estate overlap with the closing Macy’s location and sees TJX (TJX) as a beneficiary of customer overlap.
“Also, when comparing M’s customer profile to TJX’s, we found the two to be comparable based on household income: ~47% of Macy’s shoppers have a household income of >$100K vs ~50% of TJX shoppers for this same threshold. This compares to only ~30% for BURL and ~34% for ROST,’ observed Tarlowe.
Macy’s (M) announced earlier in the year that it will close 150 stores over the next three years and 50 by the end of 2024. The disclosure arrived alongside the department’s store Q4 earnings report, which featured a decline in revenue for the holiday quarter. While Macy’s (M) is reducing its total retail footprint, the company is opening 15 more of its higher end Bloomingdale’s stores and 30 of its luxury Blue Mercury cosmetics locations.
TJX Companies (TJX) is one of Jefferies’ top picks in the retail sector. The bullish view on TJX is that the company’s guidance is conservative and beatable. The firm’s $120 price target on TJX is based on shares trading at ~26X P/E and ~17X EV/EBITDA on the FY26 estimates.
Shares of TJX Companies (TJX) tracked 0.20% higher in premarket trading on Wednesday. The stock is up more than 29% over the last 52 weeks, while Macy’s (M) has gained 10.5% over the same period.